Climate Policy Engagement: BMW receives a grade of D+ in InfluenceMap’s assessment of corporate engagement on climate change policy, indicating mixed engagement with Paris-aligned policy.
Forecasted 2029 Production: Data from IHS Markit forecasts that by 2029 53% of BMW's production will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), alongside 6% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), 0% ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, 40% hybrids and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario, which estimates that 57.5% of all globally produced cars must be either BEV or FCEV by 2030 to meet the 1.5°C global temperature goal.
The graphic below compares the company’s climate policy engagement score with the company’s forecasted percentage production of zero-emission vehicles by 2029 (independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data). The bubble size represents the relative proportion of vehicle production compared to other major global automakers.
Climate Lobbying Overview: BMW has active and mostly negative engagement on climate regulation in 2021-22. While the company has increasingly positive top-line statements on climate since 2020, it appears to have consistently opposed policies to phase out ICE-powered vehicles in the EU and UK, including opposing an EU 2035 zero-emissions CO2 target for cars and vans, and a UK zero-emission vehicle mandate.
The full climate policy engagement profile of BMW is available here.
Internal decarbonization targets: BMW has set three CO2 reduction targets for the year 2030: reducing its CO2 emissions per vehicle in production by 80%; at least a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions per kilometre driven, and at least a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions in the company's supply chain (all 2019 baseline). The company has also set a target of "electrified vehicles", making up at least 25% of total global deliveries by 2025 and 50% battery electric vehicles by 2030.
The vehicle production data for BMW Group can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
BMW's forecasted fleet composition by technology: In 2029, 53% of BMW’s production is forecast to be battery electric vehicles, compared to 5% in 2021. For plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), this decreases from 9% to 6% from 2021 to 2029, whereas for other hybrids, this increases from 12% in 2021 to 40% in 2029. For ICE vehicles, this decreases from 75% in 2021 to 0% in 2029. This is in contrast to the IEA’s 1.5C road transport scenario, which requires 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 to be either BEV or FCEV to decarbonize road transport in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goals.
The ‘Vehicle Technology’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted technology of vehicles produced by BMW from 2021-2029 using independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.
BMW's forecasted vehicle size: The proportion of SUVs produced by BMW in its entire fleet is estimated to increase from 45% in 2021 to 47% in 2029, whilst large vehicles do not change from 36%. Medium vehicles are projected to decrease marginally from 12% to 11%, while small vehicles are likely to decrease from 7% in 2021 to 6% in 2029. The AR6 WGIII report found that vehicle size plays a major role in determining vehicle emissions, with larger vehicles a significant driver of increased emissions.
The ‘Vehicle Size’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted future size of vehicles produced by BMW from 2021-2029 using independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.
BMW's zero-emission production & the IEA's 1.5°C scenario: Production data for BMW in 2029 forecasts that only 53% of all its vehicles will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport, which assumes 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 will need to be zero-emission vehicles (BEVs or FCEVs) to reach global net-zero by 2050
The below graph compares automakers’ previous and forecasted production of zero-emission vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs), with the trend line extrapolated from the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport in 2030.
The 'Fleet ZEV' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS, broken down by manufacturer, vehicle size, and technology type.
This model is not a definitive prediction of future emissions values for major vehicle manufacturers, but an estimation of future tailpipe emissions made using the best available emissions data. Future real-world emissions will likely vary depending on region, as well as granular differences between different vehicles that are not captured by the model. Additionally, as the model uses EU data, where produced cars typically have amongst the lowest CO2 emissions globally, it likely provides an underestimate of current and future CO2 emissions per manufacturer. Full details are available in the methodology.
The vehicle emissions data for BMW Group, can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
The 'Fleet Efficiency' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS. The three lines represent the estimated lab emissions (modeled on EU testing data) and estimated real-world emissions (based on research from the ICCT) for the company, alongside the green line, representing the IEA's well below 2°C pathway in their Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for road transport
The graph below compares the simplified emissions model data for the company from 2021-29, with other model data for other major global automakers.
