Climate Policy Engagement: Tesla receives a grade of B in InfluenceMap’s assessment of corporate engagement on climate change policy, indicating broad alignment with, and support for, Paris-aligned policy.
Forecasted 2029 Production: Tesla's automotive line-up is currently comprised of 100% battery electric vehicles, and data from IHS Markit forecasts that in 2029 Tesla will continue to produce 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
This compares positively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario, which estimates that 57.5% of all globally produced cars must be either BEV or FCEV by 2030 to meet the 1.5°C global temperature goal.
The graphic below compares the company’s climate policy engagement score with the company’s forecasted percentage production of zero-emission vehicles by 2029 (independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data. The bubble size represents the relative proportion of vehicle production compared to other major global automakers.
Climate Lobbying Overview: Tesla has actively and positively engaged on a number of streams of climate legislation globally in 2021-22. The company has supported extensive national climate regulations for the automotive sector including higher GHG emissions standards for road transport in the EU, US and New Zealand, and more ambitious ICE phase out dates in the EU, UK, and California.
Tesla's full climate policy engagement profile is available here.
The vehicle production data for Tesla can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
Tesla’s forecasted fleet composition by technology: Tesla's automotive line-up is currently comprised of 100% battery electric vehicles, and data from IHS Markit forecasts that in 2029 Tesla will continue to produce 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This compares positively to the IEA’s 1.5°C road transport scenario, which requires 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 to be either BEV or FCEV to decarbonize road transport in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goals.
The ‘Vehicle Technology’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted technology of vehicles produced by Tesla from 2021-2029 using independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.
Tesla’s forecasted vehicle size: The proportion of SUVs and light commercial vehicles produced by Tesla in its entire fleet is estimated to increase between 2021-2029 from 51% to 64% for SUVs, and 0% to 6% for light commercial vehicles. Forecasts estimate that the proportion of large vehicles between 2021 and 2029, however, will decrease from 49% to 29%. Medium and small sized vehicles are likely to remain at 0% during the same time period. The AR6 WGIII report found that vehicle size plays a major role in determining vehicle emissions, with larger vehicles a significant driver of increased emissions.
The ‘Vehicle Size’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted future size of vehicles produced by Tesla from 2021-2029 using independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.
Tesla’s zero-emission production & the IEA's 1.5°C scenario: Production data for Tesla in 2029 forecasts that 100% of all its vehicles will be battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). This compares positively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport, which assumes 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 will need to be zero-emission vehicles (BEVs or FCEVs) to reach global net-zero by 2050.
The below graph compares automakers’ previous and forecasted production of zero-emission vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs), with the trend line extrapolated from the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport in 2030.
The 'Fleet ZEV' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS, broken down by manufacturer, vehicle size, and technology type.
This model is not a definitive prediction of future emissions values for major vehicle manufacturers, but an estimation of future tailpipe emissions made using the best available emissions data. Future real-world emissions will likely vary depending on region, as well as granular differences between different vehicles that are not captured by the model. Additionally, as the model uses EU data, where produced cars typically have amongst the lowest CO2 emissions globally, it likely provides an underestimate of current and future CO2 emissions per manufacturer. Full details are available in the methodology.
The vehicle emissions data for Tesla, can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
The 'Fleet Efficiency' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS. The three lines represent the estimated lab emissions (modeled on EU testing data) and estimated real-world emissions (based on research from the ICCT) for the company, alongside the green line, representing the IEA's well below 2 degree pathway in their Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for road transport
The graph below compares the simplified emissions model data for the company from 2021-29, with other model data for other major global automakers.
