Climate Policy Engagement: Toyota receives a grade of D in InfluenceMap’s assessment of corporate engagement on climate change policy, indicating the company has mixed to negative engagement on Paris-aligned climate policy.
Forecasted 2029 Production: Data from S&P Global Mobility forecasts that by 2029, 17% of Toyota’s production will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), alongside 7% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), 27% ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, 49% hybrids and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario, which estimates that 57.5% of all globally produced cars must be either BEV or FCEV by 2030 to meet the 1.5°C global temperature goal.
The graphic below compares the company’s climate policy engagement score with the company’s forecasted percentage production of zero-emission vehicles by 2029 (independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data). The bubble size represents the relative proportion of vehicle production compared to other major global automakers.
Climate Lobbying Overview: Toyota is actively engaged with a variety of climate policy streams globally in 2021-22. Despite positive top-line messaging on climate and limited support for some measures to decarbonize the transport sector, Toyota has mostly negative engagement globally on policy mandating the full electrification of the automotive sector, instead promoting an extended role for ICE-powered vehicles, including hybrids. Toyota has opposed numerous policies mandating the long-term phase-out of internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered vehicles, alongside opposing zero-emission vehicle targets, in multiple regions in 2021-22.
Toyota's full climate policy engagement profile is available here.
Internal decarbonization targets: Toyota has set a target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. As part of this broader goal, Toyota has set a target of reducing global average CO2 emissions from new vehicles by 90% by 2050 (2010 baseline), with interim goals of reaching a 35% reduction by 2030 (2010 baseline) as well as selling 5.5 million "electrified" vehicles and 1 million zero-emissions vehicles. The company has also set a target of achieving net-zero CO2 emissions at global plants by 2030, with an interim goal of 35% reduction by 2030, and a target of "eliminating all CO2 emissions throughout the entire vehicle life cycle" with an interim target of reducing CO2 emissions by 25% throughout the entire vehicle life cycle by 2030 (2013 baseline). In December 2022 Toyota further announcedplans to launch five battery electric vehicles in Europe by 2026, having previously announced a 50% zero-emission vehicle sales target in the Europe region in December 2021. In April 2023, Toyota further announced they would launch 10 new battery electric vehicles globally by 2026, and target sales of 1.5 million BEVs by 2026.
Toyota does not appear to have set a date for the achievement of its target of "eliminating all CO2 emissions throughout the entire vehicle life cycle". The company also caveats its interim 2030 target for emissions from new vehicles, saying that the target of 35% may vary "according to market conditions and other factors." Toyota has not set targets for fully electrifying its entire vehicle range.
The vehicle production data for Toyota Motor can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
Toyota’s forecasted fleet composition by technology: In 2029, 17% of Toyota’s production is forecast to be battery electric vehicles, compared to 0% in 2021. For plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), this increases from 1% in 2021 to 7% in 2029, and for other hybrids, from 24% in 2021 to 49% in 2029. For ICE vehicles, this decreases from 74% in 2021 to 27% in 2029. This is in contrast to the IEA’s 1.5°C road transport scenario, which requires 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 to be either BEV or FCEV to decarbonize road transport in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goals.
The ‘Vehicle Technology’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted technology of vehicles produced by Toyota from 2021-2029 using independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.
Toyota’s forecasted vehicle size: The proportion of SUVs produced by Toyota in its entire fleet is estimated to increase between 2021-2029 from 37% to 42%. Forecasts estimate that the proportion of large vehicles will marginally decrease from 16% to 15%, medium vehicles will decrease from 14% to 12%, and small vehicles from 17% to 15%, all between 2021 and 2029. Light commercial vehicles are estimated to remain at 16% in the same time period. The AR6 WGIII report found that vehicle size plays a major role in determining vehicle emissions, with larger vehicles a significant driver of increased emissions.
The ‘Vehicle Size’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted future size of vehicles produced by Toyota from 2021-2029 using independent analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.
Toyota’s zero-emission production & the IEA's 1.5°C scenario: Production data for Toyota in 2029 forecasts that only 17% of all its vehicles will be battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport, which assumes 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 will need to be zero-emission vehicles (BEVs or FCEVs) to reach global net-zero by 2050.
The below graph compares automakers’ previous and forecasted production of zero-emission vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs), with the trend line extrapolated from the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport in 2030.
The 'Fleet ZEV' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS, broken down by manufacturer, vehicle size, and technology type.
This model is not a definitive prediction of future emissions values for major vehicle manufacturers, but an estimation of future tailpipe emissions made using the best available emissions data. Future real-world emissions will likely vary depending on region, as well as granular differences between different vehicles that are not captured by the model. Additionally, as the model uses EU data, where produced cars typically have amongst the lowest CO2 emissions globally, it likely provides an underestimate of current and future CO2 emissions per manufacturer. Full details are available in the methodology.
The vehicle emissions data for Toyota Motor, can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
The 'Fleet Efficiency' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS. The three lines represent the estimated lab emissions (modeled on EU testing data) and estimated real-world emissions (based on research from the ICCT) for the company, alongside the green line, representing the IEA's well below 2 degree pathway in their Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for road transport
The graph below compares the simplified emissions model data for the company from 2021-29, with other model data for other major global automakers.
