Climate Policy Engagement: Toyota receives a grade of D in InfluenceMap’s assessment of corporate engagement on climate change policy, indicating the company has mixed to negative engagement on Paris-aligned climate policy.
Forecasted 2029 Production: Data from IHS Markit forecasts that by 2029 14% of Toyota’s production will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), alongside 8% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), 30% ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, 48% hybrids and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario, which estimates that 57.5% of all globally produced cars must be either BEV or FCEV by 2030 to meet the 1.5°C global temperature goal.
The graphic below compares the company’s climate policy engagement score with the company’s forecasted percentage production of zero-emission vehicles by 2029 (IHS Markit data). The bubble size represents the relative proportion of vehicle production compared to other major global automakers.
Climate Lobbying Overview: Toyota is actively engaged with a variety of climate policy streams globally. Despite positive top-line messaging on climate, the company in 2020-22 has consistently opposed regulatory efforts to increase the stringency of emissions and fuel economy standards for vehicles across various regions globally. Furthermore, despite support for limited measures to decarbonize the transport sector, Toyota has at times been highly negative on policy mandating the electrification of the automotive sector, appearing to promote an extended role for hybrid vehicles and opposing the long-term phase-out of internal combustion engine-powered vehicles.
Toyota's full climate policy engagement profile is available here.
Internal decarbonization targets: Toyota has set a target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. As part of this broader goal, Toyota has set a target of reducing global average CO2 emissions from new vehicles by 90% by 2050 (2010 baseline), with interim goals of reaching a 35% reduction by 2030 (2010 baseline) as well as selling 5.5 million "electrified" vehicles and 1 million zero-emissions vehicles. The company has also set a target of achieving net-zero CO2 emissions at global plants by 2030, with an interim goal of 35% reduction by 2030, and a target of "eliminating all CO2 emissions throughout the entire vehicle life cycle" with an interim target of reducing CO2 emissions by 25% throughout the entire vehicle life cycle by 2030 (2013 baseline).
Toyota does not appear to have set a date for the achievement of its target of "eliminating all CO2 emissions throughout the entire vehicle life cycle". The company also caveats its interim 2030 target for emissions from new vehicles, saying that the target of 35% may vary "according to market conditions and other factors."
The vehicle production data for Toyota Motor can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
Toyota’s forecasted fleet composition by technology: In 2029, 14% of Toyota’s production is forecast to be battery electric vehicles, compared to 0% in 2020. For plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), this increases from 1% in 2020 to 8% in 2029, and for other hybrids, from 21% in 2020 to 48% in 2029. For ICE vehicles, this decreases from 79% in 2020 to 30% in 2029. This is in contrast to the IEA’s 1.5°C road transport scenario, which requires 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 to be either BEV or FCEV to decarbonize road transport in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goals.
The ‘Vehicle Technology’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted technology of vehicles produced by Toyota from 2020-2029 using IHS Markit data.
Toyota’s forecasted vehicle size: The proportion of SUVs produced by Toyota in its entire fleet is estimated to increase between 2020-2029 from 34% to 40%. Forecasts estimate that the proportion of large vehicles will decrease from 16% to 14%, medium vehicles will decrease from 17% to 13%, and small vehicles from 19% to 17%, all between 2020 and 2029. Light commercial vehicles are estimated to increase marginally from 14% to 15% in the same time period. The AR6 WGIII report found that vehicle size plays a major role in determining vehicle emissions, with larger vehicles a significant driver of increased emissions.
The ‘Vehicle Size’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted future size of vehicles produced by Toyota from 2020-2029 using IHS Markit data.
Toyota’s zero-emission production & the IEA's 1.5°C scenario: Production data for Toyota in 2029 forecasts that only 14% of all its vehicles will be battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport, which assumes 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 will need to be zero-emission vehicles (BEVs or FCEVs) to reach global net-zero by 2050.
The below graph compares automakers’ previous and forecasted production of zero-emission vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs), with the trend line extrapolated from the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport in 2030.
The 'Fleet ZEV' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS, broken down by manufacturer, vehicle size, and technology type.
This model is not a definitive prediction of future emissions values for major vehicle manufacturers, but an estimation of future tailpipe emissions made using the best available emissions data. Future real-world emissions will likely vary depending on region, as well as granular differences between different vehicles that are not captured by the model. Additionally, as the model uses EU data, where produced cars typically have amongst the lowest CO2 emissions globally, it likely provides an underestimate of current and future CO2 emissions per manufacturer. Full details are available in the methodology.
The vehicle emissions data for Toyota Motor, can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
The 'Fleet Efficiency' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS. The three lines represent the estimated lab emissions (modeled on EU testing data) and estimated real-world emissions (based on research from the ICCT) for the company, alongside the green line, representing the IEA's well below 2 degree pathway in their Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for road transport
The graph below compares the simplified emissions model data for the company from 2020-29, with other model data for other major global automakers.