Climate Policy Engagement: Volkswagen receives a grade of C in InfluenceMap’s assessment of corporate engagement on climate change policy, indicating mixed engagement with Paris-aligned policy.
Forecasted 2029 Production: Data from IHS Markit forecasts that by 2029 43% of Volkswagen’s production will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), alongside 5% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), 11% ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, 41% hybrids and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).
This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario, which estimates that 57.5% of all globally produced cars must be either BEV or FCEV by 2030 to meet the 1.5°C global temperature goal.
The graphic below compares the company’s climate policy engagement score with the company’s forecasted percentage production of zero-emission vehicles by 2029 (IHS Markit data). The bubble size represents the relative proportion of vehicle production compared to other major global automakers.
Climate Lobbying Overview: Volkswagen is actively engaged with European and US climate regulation, and appears to have become more positive on climate regulation since early 2019. In 2020-21, Volkswagen has stated support for certain policies to electrify transportation, while having mixed engagement on policies to phase out ICE vehicles and EU CO2 targets for cars and vans.
Volkswagen's full climate policy engagement profile is available here.
Internal decarbonization targets: Volkswagen has set a target of achieving "climate neutrality" by 2050, with interim targets of reducing GHG emissions from production and use of vehicles by 30% by 2030 (2018 baseline), and powering its production processes with 100% renewable energy by 2030 (EU-wide by 2023). The company has also set a BEV sales target of "70 percent of European and 50 percent of Chinese and US sales volumes by 2030".
The vehicle production data for Volkswagen Group can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
Volkswagen’s forecasted fleet composition by technology: In 2029, 43% of Volkswagen’s production is forecast to be battery electric vehicles, compared to 3% in 2020. For plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), this increases marginally from 3% to 5% between 2020-2029, whereas for other hybrids, this increases significantly from 10% in 2020 to 41% in 2029. For ICE vehicles, this decreases from 84% in 2020 to 11% in 2029. This is in contrast to the IEA’s 1.5°C road transport scenario, which requires 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 to be either BEV or FCEV to decarbonize road transport in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goals.
The ‘Vehicle Technology’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted technology of vehicles produced by Volkswagen from 2020-2029 using IHS Markit data.
Volkswagen’s forecasted vehicle size: The proportion of large vehicles produced by Volkswagen in its entire fleet is estimated to increase from 15% to 20% between 2020-2029, while SUVs are likely to increase from 38% to 45%. Medium and small vehicles are projected to decrease between 2020-2029 from 31% to 22% for medium vehicles, and 10% to 8% for small vehicles. The proportion of light commercial vehicles is expected to stay the same at 5% over the same time period. The AR6 WGIII report found that vehicle size plays a major role in determining vehicle emissions, with larger vehicles a significant driver of increased emissions.
The ‘Vehicle Size’ graph below outlines the previous and forecasted future size of vehicles produced by Volkswagen from 2020-2029 using IHS Markit data.
Volkswagen’s zero-emission production & the IEA's 1.5°C scenario: Production data for Volkswagen in 2029 forecasts that only 43% of all its vehicles will be battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and 0% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). This compares negatively to the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport, which assumes 57.5% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 will need to be zero-emission vehicles (BEVs or FCEVs) to reach global net-zero by 2050.
The below graph compares automakers’ previous and forecasted production of zero-emission vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs), with the trend line extrapolated from the IEA’s 1.5°C scenario for road transport in 2030.
The 'Fleet ZEV' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS, broken down by manufacturer, vehicle size, and technology type.
This model is not a definitive prediction of future emissions values for major vehicle manufacturers, but an estimation of future tailpipe emissions made using the best available emissions data. Future real-world emissions will likely vary depending on region, as well as granular differences between different vehicles that are not captured by the model. Additionally, as the model uses EU data, where produced cars typically have amongst the lowest CO2 emissions globally, it likely provides an underestimate of current and future CO2 emissions per manufacturer. Full details are available in the methodology.
The vehicle emissions data for Volkswagen Group, can be filtered by region using the dropdown below
The 'Fleet Efficiency' graph below provides a simplified model of the companies’ current and future emissions based on combining EU vehicle emissions data with forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS. The three lines represent the estimated lab emissions (modeled on EU testing data) and estimated real-world emissions (based on research from the ICCT) for the company, alongside the green line, representing the IEA's well below 2 degree pathway in their Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) for road transport
The graph below compares the simplified emissions model data for the company from 2020-29, with other model data for other major global automakers.