Introduction

InfluenceMap's Automotive Climate Tool (ACT) is a platform designed to help stakeholders track the progress of the automotive sector in responding to the climate crisis. The tool combines InfluenceMap's world-leading database on corporate climate lobbying with data on forecasted light-duty vehicle production, supplied by IHS Markit. Using this data on the vehicle size, fuel, and engine technology, InfluenceMap has been able to estimate the average fleet efficiency of newly produced vehicles. By combining these two datasets ACT allows users to:

1. Understand the Paris-alignment of each automotive companies' climate lobbying
2. Compare this with forward-looking data on company vehicle production strategy, covering vehicle technology and size and see how zero emission vehicle production plans compare to climate scenarios
3. Break down forecasted production by company and region of production and compare this production to 1.5C climate scenarios
4. Explore the estimated emissions of future automaker fleets out to 2029 and compare this to climate scenarios

Lobbying analysis

InfluenceMap has developed a process for scoring and ranking companies and industry associations on their activities to influence climate change policy. Full details of the methodology are provided on this page. Listed below are some of its key features and resulting outputs.

• InfluenceMap's system adheres to key features of sound corporate assessment metrics: objectivity, transparency, ease of comprehension and use, and like-for-like comparisons across and within sectors.
• InfluenceMap's system does not judge climate policy itself, but instead measures corporate positions against Paris Agreement-aligned benchmarks of government policy and Science-Based Policy (SBP) benchmarks based on analysis of IPCC statements.
• InfluenceMap defines "policy engagement" based on the UN Guide for Responsible Corporate Engagement in Climate Policy (2013), which defines a range of corporate activities as engagement, such as advertising, social media, public relations and direct contact with regulators and elected officials.
• InfluenceMap relies on a range of data sources that are publicly accessible and reliable representations of corporate policy engagement. These include organizational websites, senior management statements, regulatory consultation comments, financial disclosures, and reliable media reporting.
• Although the system does not require the cooperation of the organizations being assessed, InfluenceMap has engaged with over 100 large corporations, industry associations, and other stakeholders on our methodology and results.
• InfluenceMap's system is updated continuously as new information becomes available, which is assessed and added to the InfluenceMap.org online database. These results are freely available and in the public domain. The results are provided in the form of metrics and analysis on individual organizations (see, for example, Unilever's online InfluenceMap profile), and CA100+ company tables. Relationships with industry associations can be viewed on InfluenceMap's company profiles.

To assess which industry associations are the most influential on climate issues, InfluenceMap's method considers the following independent metrics:

• The Organization Score (0-100) expresses how supportive or obstructive the organization is toward climate policy aligned with the Paris Agreement. 100 is fully supportive and 0 is fully opposed.
• The Engagement Intensity (0-100) expresses the intensity of this activity whether positive or negative.
• The Relationship Score (0-100) expresses how supportive or obstructive the company's industry associations are towards climate policy aligned with the Paris Agreement, with 0 being fully opposed and 100 being fully supportive (aggregated).
• The Performance Band (A+ - F) measures a companies' climate policy engagement that accounts for both its and its own industry groups' activity on an A+ through to F scale (A+ = support, F = opposition).

Full details of InfluenceMap's lobbying analysis methodology can be found here.

Emissions model

The global forecasted light-duty vehicle production data supplied by IHS Markit, breaks down past and forecasted vehicle production by several factors including manufacturer, vehicle size, fuel and propulsion system technology, which are are the major deciders of a vehicles' emissions. InfluenceMap has created a model to estimate the past and future emissions of the vehicles in the production data.

To estimate the emissions of the vehicles in the production data, InfluenceMap has also calculated emissions values associated with each vehicle group, accounting for differences between manufacturer, size, fuel, year of production, and propulsion systems. However, due to a widespread lack of transparency in global emission databases, InfluenceMap was heavily limited in what emissions values it could use for the model. The most complete set of historical vehicle emissions values is provided by the European Environment Agency. Using historical emissions data provided by the EU, InfluenceMap is able to calculate the average emissions of each vehicle group. The finalized EU emissions data collected from 2010-19, is used to calculate the average emissions values for each manufacturer, size, technology, fuel type and production year combination. These values are then mapped to the IHS production data and aggregated to get emissions values across manufacturer and regional fleets. Vehicle emissions were aggregated by brand owners. Hence, for vehicles produced in China under joint ownership of a Chinese and Non-Chinese brand, the vehicle emissions were attributed to the owner of the brand of the vehicle produced.

However, while this simplified model uses the best publicly available data, it does not account for the difference between similar vehicle models produced in different regions, likely creating a margin of error. It is also important to note this model is not a definitive prediction of future emissions values for major vehicle manufacturers, but an estimation of future tailpipe emissions made using the best available emissions data from the EU. It is likely that this might underestimate global emissions for many companies, as the EU has some of the most stringent efficiency regulations in the world. Future real-world emissions will likely vary depending on aspects such as region, as well as granular differences between vehicle models, that are not currently captured by the model.

To model future vehicle emissions, InfluenceMap used the most recent emission values available and included a factor to account for year-on-year changes in emissions. To calculate this factor, InfluenceMap calculated the average efficiency change across each vehicle segment in the entire EU fleet for gasoline-powered and diesel-powered vehicles between 2010-19. Values were calculated across the entire fleet, as a large collection of data was needed to discern this minimal trend accurately. The weighted average across these segments was taken to get the average change in emissions per fuel type. For gasoline-powered vehicles, this change was an average change of +0.5% per year, for diesel-powered vehicles, it was -2.7% per year. When used to calculate future vehicle emissions, the assumption was made that gasoline vehicles would not continue to get less efficient, as the last 9 years of EU emissions data suggests. The value of a -2.7% improvement per year was used for all future diesel vehicles.

Additionally, to account for the varying emissions between official EU testing and -real-world road emissions, the final chart further includes the evidenced variation between lab emissions (modeled on EU testing data) and estimated real-world emissions (based on research from the ICCT). ICCT analysis has consistently found a significant gap between official EU testing figures on CO2 emissions for light-duty vehicles and their real-world performance, estimated at 39% in 2019.

It is also worth noting that this model is based on vehicle production and not vehicle sales. The ability of the automotive manufacturers to comply with regional emissions targets of a given market, will depend heavily on which vehicles are imported and exported out of that market. Hence, the emissions of vehicles sold in a market will not exactly match the emissions of the vehicles produced in that market.