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The automotive sector through a climate lens


Overview - May 2024 Update

Automotive Climate Toolは、自動車メーカーが気候変動政策・規制に与える影響を分析するInfluenceMap独自の評価と、2029年までの生産予測に関するIHS Markitの業界標準データで構成されています。

本ツールでは、主要市場10か所での大手自動車メーカー12社によるパリ協定の達成に向けた競争をリアルタイムで追うことが可能です。主な動向は、下記の通りです。

  • 世界最大規模の自動車メーカーらの気候変動戦略は、1.5℃目標に沿ったゼロ・エミッション車(ZEV)への移行を阻害しています。 バッテリー式電気自動車(BEV)への移行が遅れている自動車メーカーは気候変動政策へ否定的な関与を続けている一方、BEVの生産をリードしている自動車メーカーは肯定的に関与していることが明らかになっています。

下記の図は、主要自動車メーカーの気候変動政策への関与スコア(InfluenceMapによる評価)と、2029年のZEV生産台数比率の見通し(IHS Markitデータ)を比較したものです。円の大きさは、他の主要なグローバル自動車メーカーと比較した自動車生産台数の相対的な比率を表しています。

Electric Vehicle (BEV, FCEV & PHEV combined) Production and Climate Policy Engagement

Circle size proportional to historic and forecast 2020-2030 light-duty vehicle production

気候変動政策への関与

InfluenceMap maintains the world's leading platform for assessing corporations' climate policy engagement, covering over 500 companies and 250 industry associations. Key findings are below:

  • The automotive sector remains a major opponent of climate policy globally. 10 of the 15 analyzed automakers analyzed receiving a Performance Band grade of D or D+, indicating their advocacy is misaligned with policy to deliver the Paris Agreement.
  • Automotive industry associations spearhead global opposition to climate regulation. Automakers employ industry associations to aggressively push back on ambitious climate policy globally, which have had significant influence over numerous key regional policies, including in Australia and the US in 2023-24.
  • Japanese automakers are most oppositional to policies promoting battery electric vehicles across multiple regions. Mazda, Suzuki, Toyota all received a climate policy engagement score of D, indicating advocacy that is misaligned with science-based policy, with Toyota the lowest-scoring company.
  • Laggard automakers oppose to regulations to phase-out internal combustion engine vehicle sales. Most automakers continue to advocate against climate policies needed to rapidly phase-in electric vehicles and meet net-zero targets, while generally supporting electric vehicle incentives.
  • Tesla leads positive advocacy on climate policy in 2023-24. Tesla is the most positively engaged automaker in this analysis, with a Performance Band of B, actively supporting policies including zero-emission vehicle mandates and stringent greenhouse gas emission standards.

The table below compares the 15 automakers climate policy engagement scores using InfluenceMap's lobbying data.

企業&プロフィールへのアクセスパフォーマンス・バンド組織スコア関係性スコアエンゲージメント強度

自動車生産台数データ

The following graphs show automakers historic and forecasted light-duty vehicle production data until 2030 (InfluenceMap analysis of February 2024 S&P Global Mobility) compared with the International Energy Agency's 2023 1.5C scenario for road transport. Key findings are below.

  • Electric vehicle production forecasts are not aligned with the IEA’s updated 1.5°C scenario. Only 53% of global light-duty vehicles produced are forecast to be electric (BEV, PHEV or FCEV) in 2030, falling short of the IEA’s 66% 1.5°C scenario. At the company level, only Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW are forecast to align with this 1.5°C target in 2030, with Tesla leading.
  • Growing SUV and light truck production threatens decarbonization. SUV and light-commercial vehicle production is forecast to increase 7% as a proportion of all light-duty vehicle production between 2020-2030, with every automaker except Tata Motors forecast to produce proportionally more of these larger vehicles in the same period.
  • Japanese automakers are the least prepared for a battery electric vehicle transition. The four automakers with the lowest proportion of forecast electric vehicle production in 2030 are all from Japan (Suzuki at 10%, Honda at 24%, Toyota at 29% and Mazda at 30%).

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Electric vehicle Production vs IEA’s 1.5°C Scenario

Combined percentage battery electric, fuel cell hydrogen and plug-in hybrid light duty vehicles from manufacturers produced worldwide

技術別の車両構成

全世界の車両生産台数

車格別の車両構成

全世界の車両生産台数